Sunday, August 26, 2007

Letter to BRAC


Ten years ago I worked on a rural electrification project in Bangladesh, funded by USAID, which was called Rural Power for Poverty Reduction (RPPR.) This was a fairly comprehensive project, with several technical components that covered a range of needs in delivering electricity to that developing nation – distribution, generation, and renewable energy – each with its own appropriate place and cost. Now you should understand that I’m an electrical engineer with a specialty in the transmission and distribution of electrical power, on which I’ve largely focused during my twenty-year career; I can model, analyze, plan, and design transmission and distribution lines, and then I can specify the materials and even get those lines built if needed. But, for this broader project in Bangladesh, we also had short-term specialists for the generation (Jim) and for the renewable energy (Andrew) components. The specialists set up the programs in their area of expertise, while briefly in-country, and I learned from them and then carried the projects forward in their absence (being the resident advisor.)

At one point in my 2-1/2 years as the Engineering and Operations Advisor in Bangladesh, Jim and Andrew were in-country at the same time – occupying desks in my office – and somehow the topic of conversation turned to Global Warming. Andrew was for it, Jim was against it. To my uninformed ears, they both sounded very knowledgeable on the subject, both tossing conflicting data and theories back and forth. Their argument was with each other and not aimed at me, so I was as ignorant on the subject at the end of the debate as before – all I knew is that the jury was apparently still out on the matter and that some day I would have to revisit this topic, get informed as to the facts, and decide what was truly correct.

Now, ten years later, Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has formed a Blue Ribbon Advisory Council (BRAC) on Climate Change and has tasked them to study the science of Global Warming and recommend pertinent policies, as needed, to address the issue. What this lame committee has done so far is to ignore the available science and instead lap up the flawed “conventional wisdom” on the subject and then recommend the acceptance of California’s onerous CO2 emission laws and propose to impose what is called a “Renewable Portfolio Standard” (RPS = a law mandating that electric utilities buy a significant percentage of their electricity from expensive but “renewable” power sources, like solar or wind, but NOT hydro.) Given that these policies have already been determined to double everyone’s electricity rates, the Utah Rural Electric Association asked me to comment on the imposition of a Renewable Portfolio Standard in Utah. Following is what I wrote to the BRAC on that subject:

There are several significant points to seriously consider when discussing something as expensive and unnecessary as mandating a Renewable Portfolio Standard:

1. The first ten to twenty points of contention are cost, cost, cost, etc. For example, a solar power system costs a minimum of $10/watt, and probably something more like $14/watt when you consider the cost of installation, while a natural gas generator costs a maximum of $1/watt, which cost goes down considerably as you increase the size to something over 10MW. The members of our cooperative simply can't afford to and won't stand for increasing their power costs by some twenty times more than what they are today and any politician or bureaucrat that thinks otherwise should start looking for a real job.

2. After you get past the mountain of additional costs, then it's no molehill when you start to surmount the issue of what renewable resources are physically available. Here in Sunny Southern Utah we certainly have plenty of sunshine, but that's only during the daytime and sometimes people like to use electricity at night. In fact, fully half of our annual peaks in power consumption happen after dark. And while you can store energy temporarily in batteries, neither lead/acid nor nickel/cadmium are renewable resources. Plus, there is no generation quality wind resource available in Southern Utah – even in Hurricane where the wind seems to be always blowing. Dixie did a study in connection with the State energy office 5 years ago by installing three wind meters at three different sites and found that the wind in the area was not steady enough to produce efficient power. And the very same people who are pushing this renewable energy agenda are undoubtedly the same group who complain about the hydro-electric dams (like Glen Canyon) that we already have, so they're not going to let us build more (even if there were another Glen Canyon to dam.) And certainly they can’t seriously propose that our members, which include a significant amount of retirees on fixed incomes, be forced to pay extra to import our energy from some other state when we have perfectly good clean coal right here in Utah.

3. Each of the co-ops in Utah already has a significant percentage of renewable energy in our portfolios with our hydropower allocations from Colorado River Storage Project. The co-ops as a whole purchase 100 out of 800 MW’s of renewable hydro energy already, which is a significant amount.

4. Dixie, and the other members of Deseret, are already offering “green” power as an option to members who choose to pay a premium to participate. Under our “Green Way” program members can elect to purchase blocks of “green” power and the extra dollars collected go toward the development of renewable resources.

5. Dixie, and the other members of Deseret, is already offering a Net Metering tariff to allow any of our members to install their own renewable energy sources and then net out their own power usage (even allowing them to sell us energy off-peak, when the value is low, and take it back out on-peak, when the value is significantly higher.)

6. If the State of Utah were serious in their promotion of renewable energy, they should put their money where their mouth is and raise income taxes so they can offer some substantial Tax Credits and Rebates that encourage home and business owners to install renewable energy generation sources. Utah has in the past offered a paltry $2000 tax credit toward the installation of a solar home system, which covered about 2-3% of the cost of installation. They should consider something more aggressive, like in the state of New Jersey where they offer up to $4.40/watt (over 30% of the total cost.) Obviously a program like this would cost real money, which would require real tax revenue increases, and would likely cost the sitting governor and legislature their jobs, but at least they'd be promoting the renewable energy program honestly.

7. Another sign that the state government were serious about developing renewable energy would be to devote some significant amount of money to research and development of new, improved, more efficient, and more economical technologies. Of course, research and development are not cheap and would come with the same financial and political costs associated with increasing taxes and spending as in item #6 above.

8. Ultimately, since Dixie and the other members of Deseret are member owned and democratically controlled cooperatives, the membership should be allowed to vote to determine if they really want to pay significantly higher electricity rates in order to pay for some “renewable” component in their energy portfolio in addition to their hydropower purchases. Of course, we already offer that option to the small minority that flunked math class (see #4 above.)

Please let me know if you have any further questions or concerns on this topic.

Sincerely,

Colin W. Jack, P.E.

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Global Warming is a Big Fat Lie


Many specialty manufacturers, special interest groups, politicians, and members of the media are perpetrating the biggest scandalous lie on the people of this earth since Galileo was muzzled by the Inquisition for stating the fact that the Earth orbited the Sun and wasn't really the center of the universe - that man's carbon dioxide emissions are causing catastrophic Global Warming and that we must annihilate mankind or at least return to the stone age to set things right. As a technically oriented individual I'm astounded that we've taken something that should be, on the whole, based in science and removed it to a completely political realm. The more that I study this issue the more angry I get - I can't believe that we're all just going along dumbly like sheep to the abattoir. We've been told that there is a "consensus" among the scientists that man-made Global Warming is a fact and we're just willing to take that at face value, just like the people in Galileo's time. Of course, those with a vested interest in perpetrating this heinous crime are just as potent and dangerous as was the Inquisition in Galileo's time, but that's still no excuse for our laziness. The worst thing about wasting our money and time on this subject is that we're limiting the intellectual and financial resources that we could be spending to solve REAL problems. Anyway, the purpose of this blog is to share digestible bits and pieces of my research as I go along. I've already spent months digesting every book, research paper, movie, and Internet site on this subject that I could find - on BOTH sides, I might add. I've also moved the following two posts over from my other blog in which I tend to write about our family travels around the world - I thought they'd be more at home here.

Monday, August 6, 2007

The High Priests of Doomsday


Back on December 14, 2001, I was working on a rural electrification project in Guatemala when I got to view a near total solar eclipse - I made a pin hole projector and everything (see the attached photo.) It was amazing to me to hear and see the local news on the radio and TV assuring the people that it was only a natural phenomenon and not the end of the world*. It seemed to me that the modern Mayas weren't that far removed from the ancient Mayas that were portrayed in Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, where the poor peasants had their hearts ripped out as they were sacrificed by the decadent power-grabbing priests, right in front of the stoned-out-of-their-minds royalty, playing on the people's and leaders' ignorance of natural phenomena, like solar eclipses, making everyone think that what they were doing was controlling the weather. Of course, we modern Americans are no better - we've crowned Al Gore and the other alarmists of "man-caused Global Warming" as our high priests and are offering up our economy as a sacrifice (they want $2T/yr = 15% of our 2006 GDP!) in an attempt to change the natural phenomenon of global warming. What a bunch of nimrods we are becoming.

And since the scientific community has been marginalized out of the current "debate" on man's contribution to Global Climate Change, and since it is no longer acceptable for anyone to express a viewpoint on the subject that doesn't coincide with our priest's, it is imperative that we all do a little of our own homework on this topic so that we can try to shift the public opinion back to something a little more based on science rather than superstition. Toward that end, following are a few recommended readings on global climate change, for your personal edification:
  1. Shattered Consensus, The True State of Global Warming by Patrick J. Michaels

  2. MYTHS, LIES, AND DOWNRIGHT STUPIDITY: GET OUT THE SHOVEL -- WHY EVERYTHING YOU KNOW IS WRONG by John Stossel. Note: You can read the pertinent chapter on-line at: http://www.abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=3061015&page=1

  3. The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming (and Environmentalism) by Christopher C. Horner

  4. Energy & the Environment: Myths & Facts by Max Schulz

  5. Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Separating Scientific Fact from Personal Opinion prepared by Sherwood B. Idso and Craig D. Idso

  6. The Blue Dog Coalition, Energy Principles, 110th Congress

  7. Petition Project – Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide by Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon and Zachary W. Robinson

  8. Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes of the Past 1000 Years: A Reappraisal by Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Craig Idso, Sherwood Idso and David R. Legates

  9. Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties by Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Sherwood B. Idso, Kirill Ya. Kondratyev and Eric S. Posmentier

  10. Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory and politics by Lee C. Gerhard

  11. Issues in the Current State of Climate Science, A Guide for Policy Makers and Opinion Leaders

  12. Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt

  13. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis - Technical Summary, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  14. Hug and Barrett versus IPCC by Heinz Hug and Jack Barrett

  15. Winning the Energy Endgame: Oil, Gas Electricity, and Climate by Amory B. Lovins

  16. Climate Connections: The failure to include many factors in climatology by Dr. Tim Ball

  17. Samuelson: The Dilemma of Global Warming vs. Economic Growth by Robert J. Samuelson

  18. Economic Climate Changes by Marlo Lewis

  19. The gods are laughing by Tom Harris

  20. Hockey Stick, 1999-2005, R.I.P.

  21. Global Warming Bombshell by Richard Muller

  22. Written Testimony of John R. Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, 2 May, 2001

  23. There is No ‘Consensus’ on Global Warming

  24. Decoding Climate Politics by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

  25. Get Your Priorities Right, The Weekend Interview with Bjorn Lomborg by Kimberley A. Strassel

  26. Climate of Fear by Richard Lindzen

  27. A Global Warming Worksheet by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

  28. Pork, the New Green Meat by Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

  29. Highly Over-Hyped – Greenland’s and Antarctica’s Impacts on Sea Level by Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso

  30. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Generation of Electric Power in the United States report jointly prepared in July 2000 by the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency

* Excerpt from my journal 12/14/01: "Our afternoon was broken up a bit as we went outside to observe the solar eclipse. I showed the guys how to make a pin-hole projector to view the eclipse -- they were impressed. They always attribute technical proficiency to my being a "Gringo" -- like when I showed them how to set the clock in the truck, run the remote control on the air conditioner, etc. Juan Jose tried to improve my eclipse projector and when it didn't work they all laughed at him for trying to be a Gringo. Speaking of laughing, we also watched local TV coverage of the eclipse and just had to chuckle when the local scientists had to reassure the local citizens that this is only a natural phenomenon and not the end of the world. The news said that the best view of this eclipse was in Costa Rica -- Jorge Mario suggested we walk around the block to their embassy to watch it there."